Sciences politiques, chronologie

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We have decided to talk about Turkey's entry into the EU. It’s a large debate and a big issue for years. Turkey is an officially candidate for membership to the European Economy Community since 1987 and was recognized as a candidate country in 1999 by the EU. The negotiations for possible integration began in 2005. This is an almost 50-year-old discussion which deeply divides the Europeans because beyond Turkey, it is the issues of the borders of Europe and the nature of European project that are at stake.

We are going to see that at the heart of the debate, they are different arguments geostrategic, political, demographic, economic, cultural and religious for and against its admission in the EU.

First of all, we are going to talk about the economics and demographics arguments.

On the pros, the entry of Turkey will give to the UE more power thanks to its economy, its membership in NATO and its position as a geostrategic actor. The United States supported the entry of Turkey as an advantage for the Western world. Barack Obama said that Turkey ties the Muslim world to the West.

Moreover, from an economic point of view Turkey is a country with strong growth in recent years with a growth rate of 5 to 6%

Then, Europe needs the demographic dynamism of Turkey. In front of aging populations such as Germany, there is nothing like a youthful Turkey. Indeed, if current demographic trends continue, Turkey could exceed the population of Germany in 2021 with 84 million inhabitants. It would bring a kind of blow of air, very timely.

It can also be noted that whenever a poor and very agricultural country has entered Europe, this has had positive results such as for Romania, Bulgaria and Poland.

Nevertheless, it’s important to qualify these positive aspects.

On the one hand, some consider that Turkey would be a weight for Europe because of external imbalances, inflationary pressures, the high rate of corruption, unemployment or public debt which are serious threats to the economic stability of the country. Some are worried about the amount of economic aid and transfers that will have to be granted to Turkey.

Moreover, its underground economy - the black market - is out of proportion. It represents 40 to 60% of its Gross Domestic Product.

On the other hand, If Turkey entered the EU, its demographic weight would impress. Indeed, it would have more MEPs than France and would be the flagship of Europe in the years to come. We can also add that imbalances can be created by the free circulation of more than 100 million Turkish speakers in Europe.

One again, everything is not so simple

First of all, Turkey is not geographically in Europe. In the classical geographical view, based on the shape of the emerged lands, Europe is separated from Asia in the east by the Ural massif and the Ural river. In the southeast, the Bosphorus Strait separates Europe from the Middle East.

In other words, the geographical limits of Europe do not include the entire territory of Turkey, which is located in Asia Minor.

The difficulty between Turkey and Cyprus is an important counter argument. Cyprus is divided since the occupation of its northern part by the Turkish army in 1974. The Republic of Cyprus belonging to the EU occupies the southern part of the island and it is against Turkish membership. And this is because, Turkey does not want to recognize it and refuses to open its doors for any commercial exchange.

Another major problem is that the entry of Turkey will lead to common borders with conflicting countries such as Iraq, Iran, Syria which can frighten certain states. For some, its entry will prevent proper control of borders and allow mafias and terrorist groups to circulate in Europe.

And this is not the only thing that frightens off.

Turkey is not exemplary on the question of human rights, democracy and religion. The European Parliament has issued a report condemning violence against women, forced marriages and polygamy. On the other hand, the 95% Muslim would constitute for some an imbalance in a traditionally Christian Europe.

Turkey is not really secular, in particular it continues to discriminate against Christians, even certain minority Muslim currents

Turkey has only recently recognized the Kurdish language but the violence between the Turkish state and the Kurds by the PKK is becoming more and more important. Moreover, it refuses to recognize the Armenian genocide from 1915 to 1916.

Finally, cultural difference seems far too important between European and Turkish.

To conclude, MEPs called on Thursday to "a temporary freeze" of the membership process begun in 2005 due to the repressive drift of the trick power. Following this, Erdogan, the Turkish president threatened Europe to open its borders to migrants. The situation is therefore increasingly complex. So in your opinion what is the riskiest for Europe: accept the entry of the Turkey in the EU or refuse it?