The futur of the EU

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Francois Hollande, the French president, said that they were "prepared to take its share" of 120,000 asylum seekers that the European Commission wants to distribute over two years among member countries of the European Union. A breakdown is decided according to the number of inhabitants of each country. These 24,031 refugees will join the 9100 people that France had already committed to hosting in July. However, it is difficult to consider that the 120,000 asylum seekers will be the last to arrive in Europe. They are also a fraction of arrivals: in just the first half of 2015, the 28 countries of the European Union had 380,245 first asylum applications, according to Eurostat. France. The French Government is expected to receive 60,000 requests this year. The crises that push these refugees to reach Europe, whether Syrian, Iraqi, Sudanese, Somali and Eritrean, are far from being resolved. In a letter to Brussels, September 3rd, France and Germany have also expressed support for the establishment of a permanent mechanism for distributing the reception of refugees between European countries. This is one way to prepare for an influx of refugees that might not dry up in the future (OBS, 2015).

The potential influx of refugees to France raised concerns for French people about job security. Nobody knows for certain what effects will occur concerning unemployment when tens of thousands of migrants come to France. In 2014, the Centre for Future Studies and International Information (CFSII) estimated that 10% of immigrants in the population, of the same age and equal competence, made the French employment rate drop 3%. The proportion of people who should be allowed in France is much lower, between four and ten thousand refugees, or 0.04%. The evolution of the share of immigrants in France between 1990 and 2010 had no effect on the average wage, it is also noted by the CFSII that immigration even has a slightly positive effect for low-skilled employees (+0.5% over this period), but slightly negative for highly skilled employees (-1.1%) (Sergent, 2015).

In conclusion, the European Union is facing a serious problem. EU’s foundations are in peril. As of today, there is no actual solution. No one knows when this migration will stop. Politicians have not found any agreement, they are still in the process of discussing it, but the situation is being more and more difficult. Moreover, Europe was already facing a financial crisis since 2008, this potential migration will not help the European countries to make it through. Today, another big issue is the terrorism threat of coming from radicalized refugees, but this topic is out of the scope of this paper.

References

L’OBS, (2015, August 28). Migration: les réfugiés syriens quittent le Moyen-Orient pour l'Europe. Retrieved fron L’OBS a la une Web site : http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/ topnews/20150828.AFP7739/migration-les-refugies-syriens-quittent-le-moyen-orient-pour-l-europe.html

Sergent, H., (2015, September 15). Crise des réfugiés: Faute d'accord entre pays européens, quelles conséquences? Retrieved from Journal 20 Minutes Web site: http://www.20minutes.fr/ monde/1687439-20150915-crise-refugies-faute-accord-entre-pays-europeens-consequences

UNHCR (2013). Republique Arabe Syrienne. Retrieved from UNCHR Web site: http://www.unhcr.fr/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/home

Vaudano, M., (2015, September 4). Comprendre la crise des migrants en Europe en cartes, graphiques et vidéos. Retrieved from Journal Le Monde Web site : http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2015/09/04/comprendre-la-crise-des-migrants-en-europe-en-cartes-graphiques-et-videos_4745981_4355770.html