THAILAND POTENTIAL RISKS

...

3 : high urbanization rate, important Place of exchanges, crossroads of communication routes, high drift from the land

- Islamic fundamentalism : / 4 points

0 : Freedom of religion, full civil rights, no Islamic attack, distinction between policy and belief

1 : Freedom of Religion, full civil rights, very few Islamic attack

2 : Monitoring religion, few Islamic attack, human rights violation

3 : Limits on religion & civil rights, some Islamic attack

4 : No free religion, dictatorship, many Islamic attack, political and social unfairness

- Corruption : / 6 points

0 : Developed country, no corruption (public & private sectors), high social development, no abuse on fonctions

1 : Developed country, very few corruption, high social development, no abuse on fonctions

2 : emerging country, few corruption (public sectors), low social development

3 : emerging country, some corruption (public & private sectors), low social development

4 : underdeveloped country, some corruption (public sectors), low social development

5 : underdeveloped country, high rate of corruption(public & private sectors), Corruption of national and foreign civil servants, low social developement

6 : underdeveloped country, Poverty, very low social development, Corruption of national and foreign civil servants, Corruption (public & private sectors), Extortion, appropriation and other diversion of the property, Abuse of functions, Obstruction in the justice

- Ethnic tension : / 4 points

0 : No ethnic tension, respect of human rights, Freedom of religion, peace & mixt between different ethnic groups

1 : Low ethnic tension, respect of human rights, Freedom of religion

2 : Some ethnic tension, respect of human rights, monitoring of religion

3 : High ethnic tension, no respect of human rights, limits on religion

4 : Very high ethnic tension, no respect of human rights, no Freedom of religion, attack against these population ( genocide, murder…), specific district

ECONOMIC RISK 10/33pts

- Falling GDP per person 0/8points

0 : High Growth of GDP

2 : Stable GDP for many years

4 : Irregular Economic Fluctuation

6 : Decreasing GDP

8 : Economical recession

- High inflation 0/5points

0 : Deflation

1 : Disinflation

2 : Staglfation (slow period )

3 : Early stage of inflation (increase of general price level )

4 : Critical stage (government lose inflation’s « control »)

5 : Recession (several consecutives months of GDP’s negative growth)

- Capital flight 2/4points

0 : Rich people stay in the country with their fortune

1 : Higher taxes on wealth, rich starts savings overseas

2 : Capital flight due to political events

3 : Tax Evasion rate growing

4 : No rich people keep its fortune in the country anymore

- High and rising foreign debt as proportion of GDP 6/6points

0 : real interest rate more than 16%

2 : real interest rate between 7%-16%

4 : real interest rate between 2%-7%

6 : real interest rate between 0-2%

- Decline in food production 0/4points

0 : High food production and exportations

1 : mportant food production but no exportations

2 : Import 50% of the food cosumption

3 : Very low food production

4 : Famine

- Raw materials as high % of exports 2/6points

0 : No raw materials exportations at all

2 : Raw materials represent less than 50% of exports

4 : Raw material represent more than 50% of exports

6 : The economy

...